Abstract

This study uses secondary data from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) database, to examine trends in wheat production performance in Nigeria, India, and Pakistan from 1982 to 2022. We examine im portant indicators such as cultivated area, productivity, and production to comprehend the changing patterns of wheat production in these countries. According to the data, India's cultivated area grows at an average rate of 0.82%, while production grows at a rate of 2.39% and yield grows at a rate of 1.57%. Pakistan exhibits a similar pattern, with yield growth at 1.68%, production rising by 2.24%, and cultivated area growing at a pace of 0.56%. On the other hand, although Nigeria's agricultural area increased by 2.62%, its average yield decreased. The ARIMA model predicts that India's yield will fluctuate from 3.34 to 4.46 t/ha, while Pakistan's yield will range from 2.82 to 3.58 t/ha. Nigeria's yield is expected to range from 0.67 to 1.78 t/ha. A LOESS trend plot shows the trends in each variable, demonstrating significant patterns in growth rates among coun tries. The findings show that whereas India leads in total production, Nigeria has significant yield challenges while growing its cultivated area. This study emphasizes the necessity for specific agricultural policies and investments to improve wheat production efficiency in this region.

DOI: doi.org/10.63721/25JGEAS0108

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